Real Estate Market Report: September 27th 2007
1 Comments Published by Brian W. Barringer on Thursday, September 27, 2007 at 10:21 AM.
The following information is from the local MLS database, as of September 27th 2007(data from September 1st, 2007):
Average # of days on market: 78 (74)
Average price of all Homes for sale in Tracy: 487,734 ($500,130)
(PENDING), Number of properties currently under agreement: 58 (52) Avr. pending home is 4bd, 2.5ba, 2003 sq.ft at a price of $423,042 and 63 days on the market
(SOLD), Residential property over previous 30 days: 26 homes or $10,908,570 (58) Highest sale price was 597K for a 5/4bd 3000 sq.ft home. Lowest was a 3bd/1ba 936 sq.ft home for 271K.
SUMMERY:Numbers still reflect a slow market. There is an increase in pending sales which might suggest a slight pick up. Foreclosures continue to lead the market in the pricing category. Also the amount of short sales on the market is an indication that there is another wave of foreclosures yet to come over the next 4 months. My prediction is we are going to see one huge push of foreclosures and then they should taper down to half of what it is now and gradually be reduced as the number of sub prime loan adjustments reduce. Please read below for more information.
SUMMERY:Numbers still reflect a slow market. There is an increase in pending sales which might suggest a slight pick up. Foreclosures continue to lead the market in the pricing category. Also the amount of short sales on the market is an indication that there is another wave of foreclosures yet to come over the next 4 months. My prediction is we are going to see one huge push of foreclosures and then they should taper down to half of what it is now and gradually be reduced as the number of sub prime loan adjustments reduce. Please read below for more information.
From a weekly newsletter by John Mauldin’ From the Front Lines:
As Mauldin puts it:
This shows the amount of adjustable rate mortgages that reset each month for the first half of this year and will reset for the next 18 months. Note that these reset numbers are a driving factor in the increasing rise in foreclosures. Pay attention to the numbers I highlight in red for January through June of 2008. The largest portion of mortgage resets is not until next year.
We have just seen $197 billion of mortgage resets so far this year. That is less than we will see in two months (February and March) of next year. The first six months of next year will see more than the total for 2007 or $521 billion. This suggests to me that the number of foreclosures is due to rise dramatically from the already high current levels, putting more homes into a weak housing environment.
These homes that are going to see reset prices are for the most part not going to be able to be rolled over into a traditional 30 year mortgage because there is not going to be enough equity to get a traditional mortgage. While the total increase in payments is an estimated $42 billion, which is not all that large in the grand scheme of things, to the individuals who are paying the increase it is a large increase in their housing costs. My estimate is that this is about one-half of 1% of total consumer spending. Along with inflationary rises in food and energy, this is going to continue to put pressure on consumer spending.
As Mauldin puts it:This shows the amount of adjustable rate mortgages that reset each month for the first half of this year and will reset for the next 18 months. Note that these reset numbers are a driving factor in the increasing rise in foreclosures. Pay attention to the numbers I highlight in red for January through June of 2008. The largest portion of mortgage resets is not until next year.
We have just seen $197 billion of mortgage resets so far this year. That is less than we will see in two months (February and March) of next year. The first six months of next year will see more than the total for 2007 or $521 billion. This suggests to me that the number of foreclosures is due to rise dramatically from the already high current levels, putting more homes into a weak housing environment.
These homes that are going to see reset prices are for the most part not going to be able to be rolled over into a traditional 30 year mortgage because there is not going to be enough equity to get a traditional mortgage. While the total increase in payments is an estimated $42 billion, which is not all that large in the grand scheme of things, to the individuals who are paying the increase it is a large increase in their housing costs. My estimate is that this is about one-half of 1% of total consumer spending. Along with inflationary rises in food and energy, this is going to continue to put pressure on consumer spending.
Previous Tracy california Market Reports:
Made by Brian Barringer
for The Tracy Real Estate blog.
800.894.7282
What makes a home pending?
0 Comments Published by Brian W. Barringer on Monday, September 24, 2007 at 9:50 AM.
What is pending? Its when a home is under contract and not closed yet..... There are 51 homes currently pending in the city of Tracy. What made these homes go pending? Each of these homes has at least attract a buyer who is interested in purchasing the home. Is there anything these sellers have in common? When reviewing the homes, overall they are all in above average condition and below average price.
Some homes have great comments in the marketing section which help the home stand out.
For a complete list of all pending homes click here.
I am very interested in what YOU think about the data, anything I missed?
2)
On a new home, this would be great motivation for a move up buyer. Now you can only really do this if you were a builder. But you could offer something similar. Say if you were a move up/down buyer wanted to buy a bigger/smaller home in the same market. You could offer on the MLS to do a trade up/down with another buyer who is looking for the opposite.
3) There is another home with a great list of upgrades with in ground pool and spa. Instead of the home being the first MLS picture you see you look at the pool, which is a nice trick for showing off a beautiful pool.
4). Plenty of marketing remarks with all caps with lots of SHOUTING!!!!!!!!(shouting about something only works if you have something to truly shout about, there are a lot of shouting comments on overpriced homes too:
6) Two of the pending homes are condos.
7) Five homes went pending in less then 10 days on the market and five homes took over 95 days to go pending.
Some homes have great comments in the marketing section which help the home stand out.
For a complete list of all pending homes click here.
I am very interested in what YOU think about the data, anything I missed?
A few observations:
1) Average home pending on the market today in Tracy is:
4 bedrooms
2.5 baths
1,963 sq.ft
$419,473 is the average price of a
home pending today in Tracy.
55 days on the market
2)
"BUILDER MAY PURCHASE YOUR CLIENTS HOME OUTRIGHT TO AVOID CONTINGENT SALE DOUBTS"
On a new home, this would be great motivation for a move up buyer. Now you can only really do this if you were a builder. But you could offer something similar. Say if you were a move up/down buyer wanted to buy a bigger/smaller home in the same market. You could offer on the MLS to do a trade up/down with another buyer who is looking for the opposite.
3) There is another home with a great list of upgrades with in ground pool and spa. Instead of the home being the first MLS picture you see you look at the pool, which is a nice trick for showing off a beautiful pool.
4). Plenty of marketing remarks with all caps with lots of SHOUTING!!!!!!!!(shouting about something only works if you have something to truly shout about, there are a lot of shouting comments on overpriced homes too:
5) Six listings that are pending only have one photo available.PRICE INCLUDES NEW APPLIANCES, TOUCH UP PAINT & CLEANING
SUPER SUPER BEST BUY! VERY MOTIVATED SELLER!
4 BEDROOMS AND 2 BATHS FOR THIS PRICE, UNBELIEVABLE!
SUPER DEAL!
CUTE HOME AND READY TO MOVE IN!
REDUCED!!!
FORECLOSURE PROPERTY READY TO BE SOLD.
6) Two of the pending homes are condos.
7) Five homes went pending in less then 10 days on the market and five homes took over 95 days to go pending.
Rsidential real estate sales for Tracy, ca: September 17th 2007
0 Comments Published by Brian W. Barringer on Tuesday, September 18, 2007 at 2:09 PM.
The following information is from the local MLS database, as of September 17th (September 1st, 2007):
Average # of days on market: 77 (74)
Median sold price, over last 30 days: $415,000 ($444,450)
Average sold price, over last 30 days: $444,382 ($463,493)
(PENDING), Number of properties going under agreement: 54 (52)
(SOLD)Average DAYS on market before selling: 61 (58)
SUMMERY: Not much in the way of numbers changed in the last 17 days.
"Steady as she go's"
Brian Barringer
Who Owns the foreclosures in Tracy?
1 Comments Published by Brian W. Barringer on Wednesday, September 12, 2007 at 4:01 PM.
Well, the banks do and its a matter of public record so.............This list is incomplete and as of September 12th 2007
BANK OWNERS
# OWNED (may not be for sale) in Tracy, ca:
Owns 46 homes in Tracy
Owns 42 homes in Tracy
Owns 19 homes in Tracy
Owns 15 homes in Tracy
has 14 homes in Tracy
Only owns 6 homes in Tracy
Has only 6 owned homes in Tracy
Has a modest 4 homes.
INTERESTING, VERY INTERESTING INDEED
Brian Barringer
brian@tracyhomes.com
Forclosure market report for Tracy, ca---- September 12, 2007
0 Comments Published by Brian W. Barringer on at 2:08 PM.
This is the total number of REO properties on the MLS as of September 12, 2007 (data from august 7th 2007).
Total # of Residentail properties listed in the city of Tracy: 951
Total # of vacant homes for sale in Tracy is 389 (377)............
Total # of Residential REO's(bank owned) for sale in the city of Tracy: 183 (109)
Average # of days on market: 70 (67)
Median price of all REO's for sale in Tracy: $434,000 ($435,000)
Average price of all REO's for sale in Tracy: $444,813 ($422,609)
# of REO's sold (closed) over past 6 months: 31 (27)
PENDING REO SALES: 18 (8)
Total # of SHORT SALES(pre-forclosure homes) on the market in Tracy: 177 (93)
PENDING SHORT SALES: 5
SOLD SHORT SALES: 8
SUMMERY: Bank-owned(foreclosed homes on the MLS) have a 19% market share of available properties, 37% if you include short sales, not to mention that 40% of the homes for sale in Tracy are vacant. We have seen a huge increase in the amount of short sales(pre-foreclosures) on the market. This huge jump in numbers should be a warning to the banks listed below.
MORE THOUGHTS:
I read in the news the other day that Countrywide layed-off 12,000 employees. Why??? They have so much work to do. In the loss mitigation department, those guys are swamped with files, phones off the hook and voice mail full. If I was a nation wide bank president my priority #1 would be moving this inventory. How? They have to do the same thing they did on the stock market to sell, discount the inventory, how much did they do it on Wall Street? I remember reading in WSJ some mortgage funds have had to discount 45% to get CIH(cash in hand) to pay creditors. But I do know for a fact that I am dealing with 8 short sales and that dealing with each loss mitigation departments is a tought, time consuming process because they are slammed with files. If banks do not want to sell there excess inventory or are in a position to hold some of the portfolio, they they should consider renting. Next thing you are going to see in the news is squatter problems, and I will have to start blogging about squatters rights.........
I don't think it sunk in for them how much they are going to lose on the bad loans they have made. I think the faster these homes can be sold, the better off the lending companies will be(I could be wrong I really dont know).
Brian Barringer
Real Estate in the Paleo-Future
0 Comments Published by Brian W. Barringer on Tuesday, September 11, 2007 at 9:45 PM.
Wow, I wanted to share an image of a couple buying a house in the (paleo)future. The publication appears to be from December, 1953. I found this interesting picture on a cool blog called Paleo-Future (A look into the future that never was). Check it out.
paleo-a prefix meaning old or ancient (eg, Paleo-Indian, paleoenvironment).
Brian Barringer
brian@tracyhomes.com
Neighborhoods of Tracy: Hidden Lake
1 Comments Published by Brian W. Barringer on Sunday, September 09, 2007 at 11:07 AM.
I am going to be doing a short feature on each of the individual neighborhoods of Tracy to help buyers identify which area they would like to live in. I am going to be starting with hidden lake. Brian
(community center)
Project: Hidden Lake
(community center)
Project: Hidden LakeDeveloper: Pulte Homes
Location: South/east Tracy, caHidden Lake in Tracy, California is a master planned community by Pulte Homes designed by Randall Planning & Design, Inc. This is a 150-acre community. The concept includes a 10-acre lake surrounded by a mile-long multi-use path, recreational center, pool, and parkways. The project was completed in 2005. Hidden lake is located in Jefferson school district and students would also be attending Tracy High School.
Hidden lake is located on the south/east side of Tracy it gets much less wind then the west side. There is a homeowners association dues of about $80 a month to maintain the lake, pool, landscaping and community center. A few shopping centers are in the plans for south tracy including a Raley’s supermarket at Red Maple Village at the corner of Tracy Boulevard and Valpico Road.
Currently there are 18 homes for sale in the area with an average price of 646K. The Lowest priced home on the market is a 1,705 sq.ft home for $445,000. The highest is a 3900 sq.ft home on the lake for $999,999. Email me for a complete list of homes.
Brian Barringer
brian@tracyhomes.com
800.894.7282
Tracy, Ca real estate market as of September 8th, 2007
0 Comments Published by Brian W. Barringer on Saturday, September 08, 2007 at 10:14 AM.
The following information is from the local MLS database, below is a link to previous market posts by date. These posts are a glimps into the real estate market in Tracy California. I have included data I though would be valuable to see on a weekly to bi-weekly basis. I would be interested in any input as far as what you the reader would like to see in this market post. Data in (( )) is always from previous entrys to give the reader an idea of where the market is going. I would also be happy to hold a discussion regarding the market if anyone has questions.
September 8th, 2007 ((data from august 7th, 2007)):
Total # of Residential properties for sale in the city of Tracy: 932 ((942))
Average # of days on market: 75 ((69))
Average # of days on market: 75 ((69))
Median price of all active homes for sale in Tracy: $469,900 (($480,000))
Average price of all active homes for sale in Tracy: $498,415 (($503,956))
Number of Homes sold (closed) over past 30 days: 24 ((43))
Median sales price, over last 30 days: $419,475 (($417,500))
Average sales price, over last 30 days: $452,466 (($436,110))
(PENDING), Number of properties going under agreement: 35 ((44))
(SOLD)Average DAYS on market before selling: 55 ((71))
Vacant Properties for sale: 379
SUMMERY: Steady, a slight downturn in overall sales for the month. Average days on the market for the sold properties are down. A good amount of vacant properties suggests motivated sellers.
SUMMERY: Steady, a slight downturn in overall sales for the month. Average days on the market for the sold properties are down. A good amount of vacant properties suggests motivated sellers.
Market reports for Tracy, Ca:
Forclosure market reports for Tracy, ca:
Mortgage news from the Wall Street Journal:
Countrywide Is to Cut 20% Of Work Force
• The News: The largest home lender, Countrywide Financial, is cutting as many as 12,000 jobs (or 20% of the work force).
• Backstory: Anxiety among investors over rising defaults is forcing a sharp cutback in lending, which may fall 25% next year.
• What's Next: The company wants to focus now on relatively conservative loans. If the market improves, it may cut fewer jobs.
Brian Barringer
brian@tracyhomes.com
800.894.7282
800.894.7282
40 Unusual Websites you should Bookmark.
0 Comments Published by Brian W. Barringer on Friday, September 07, 2007 at 10:06 AM.
Having access to the internet is all about how you use it, here is a list of new websites which make life these days a little bit eazier. I found this interesting link on Digg.com which is a great website to get your tech news.
Here are a few of my favorites:
DailyLit- read your favorite books by email (on your PC, mobile, etc.).
NoPhoneTrees
- simple phone directory that lists direct human access numbers to support employees in hundreds of companies.
- simple phone directory that lists direct human access numbers to support employees in hundreds of companies.Undiscovered webservices that are original, rather unique, unusual, useful,
free, and must-be bookmarked type. You won’t find any collaboration, storage or
ToDo service here. Enjoy! A Must Read
free, and must-be bookmarked type. You won’t find any collaboration, storage or
ToDo service here. Enjoy! A Must Read
Brian Barringer
brian@tracyhomes.com800.894.7282
How to get started on buying a Forclosure
0 Comments Published by Brian W. Barringer on Wednesday, September 05, 2007 at 11:35 AM.
I was in the Yahoo real estate section and was looking at the foreclosures. Are there really that many foreclosures in the Tracy area. I was up to number 380 when I quit looking. Do you carry a listing of the foreclosures, and how do you go about bidding on them. I would like to get a house of my own but do not want to wind up like so many where they are working for the house, instead of the house working for them. Realistically I do not want to get a mortgage over $250,000 since I am the only one oin the family that works, and I think this would be the way to go. Please let me know what you think and provide any information that will be helpful to me on this quest.
Thank you
Thank you
MC
Hi,
Here is a current list of all the foreclosures listed on the MLS in Tracy under $500K(THE LIST Part 1, Part 2), there are about 127. Also let me know what you are looking for in a home and I can try to help you out.
First of all have you talked with a lender recently and gone over different first time buyer programs? The first thing to do is to get the pre-qualification process out of the way with a good lender and review the your current financing options. The reason that is so important is because the lending industry requirements are changing daily, as prices go down requirements for getting a loan are going up.
A proven lender we work with is Alex Alverez with National city mortgage. He is a banker, which is different then a broker. Also he is familiar with the city of Tracy's Down Payment assistance program, which is something I also suggest you look into on your quest.
Another thing to consider is if you are looking for a new home in that price range you might be looking in Patterson area or beyond. There is one new home development n the Patterson area that area n the 200K, I would be happy to show you. Once you have financing all figured out then its time to find a house.
Here is a current list of all the foreclosures listed on the MLS in Tracy under $500K(THE LIST Part 1, Part 2), there are about 127. Also let me know what you are looking for in a home and I can try to help you out.
First of all have you talked with a lender recently and gone over different first time buyer programs? The first thing to do is to get the pre-qualification process out of the way with a good lender and review the your current financing options. The reason that is so important is because the lending industry requirements are changing daily, as prices go down requirements for getting a loan are going up.
A proven lender we work with is Alex Alverez with National city mortgage. He is a banker, which is different then a broker. Also he is familiar with the city of Tracy's Down Payment assistance program, which is something I also suggest you look into on your quest.
Another thing to consider is if you are looking for a new home in that price range you might be looking in Patterson area or beyond. There is one new home development n the Patterson area that area n the 200K, I would be happy to show you. Once you have financing all figured out then its time to find a house.
Brian Barringer
brian@tracyhomes.com800.894.7282
http://www.tracyhomes.com/ and http://www.tracyrealestate.blogspot.com/
____________________________________________________________________________
Tracy residential real estate sales, September 1st, 2007
0 Comments Published by Brian W. Barringer on Saturday, September 01, 2007 at 10:04 AM.
The following information is from the local MLS database, as of:
Median price of all Homes for sale in Tracy: $469,999 ($479,900) (($480,000))
(PENDING), Number of properties going under agreement: 52 (55) ((44))
Please note that numbers in ( ) are from last week and numbers in (( )) are from august 7th. This is to give you a better indication of the market. It makes sense to me, but I am not sure if its confusing, feedback would be appreciated!
September 1st, 2007 (data from August 23, 2007) ((data from august 7th, 2007)):
Total # of Residential properties for sale in the city of Tracy: 906 (939) (942)
Average # of days on market: 74 (74) ((69))
Median price of all Homes for sale in Tracy: $469,999 ($479,900) (($480,000))
Average price of all Homes for sale in Tracy: $500,130 ($508,703) (($503,956))
Number of Homes sold (closed) over past 30 days: 30 (37) ((43))
Median sold price, over last 30 days: $444,450 ($448,750) (($417,500))
Average sold price, over last 30 days: $463,793 ($477,336) (($436,110))
(PENDING), Number of properties going under agreement: 52 (55) ((44))
(SOLD)Average DAYS on market before selling: 58 (60) ((71))
SUMMERY: Inventory is down from homes being taken off the market, not an increase in sales. Otherwise numbers look steady from last week.
Please note that numbers in ( ) are from last week and numbers in (( )) are from august 7th. This is to give you a better indication of the market. It makes sense to me, but I am not sure if its confusing, feedback would be appreciated!
Brian Barringer
brian@tracyhomes.com
